Georgian Update

From an article today:

A draft ceasefire (UN) Security Council resolution circulated by France on Tuesday was almost immediately dismissed by Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin. Churkin's dismissal and veto threat sent Council diplomats back to the drawing board while Moscow continued to solidify its hold on the occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The latest Russian troop movements also come as an emergency meeting of NATO in Brussels on Tuesday produced no substantive course of action. Russian television reported from Brussels that the Atlantic alliance had become deeply divided on how to handle the Georgian standoff.

What has to be decided is whether the world is willing to cede all of the former Soviet states back to Russia or not. This situation will not be solved with talk. While everyone is talking Russian tanks keep wreaking havoc throughout Georgia.

Mark my words: if no military action (or serious threat of action) is taken against Russia's invasion of Georgia this will happen again. The window of opportunity to stop Russia is growing smaller by the day.

In a perfect world there would be no war. In case you haven't noticed though - this isn't a perfect world.

Russia Is Lost

It would seem that Russia has lost its way back out of Georgia. In spite of announcements that they were withdrawing today, Georgia can't seem to find any evidence that it is taking place.

That is most likely because it isn't.

US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice has ratcheted up the rhetoric to a pretty shrill level, but so far it doesn't seem to be having any effect at all.

Here's something that might work.

First send in a squadron of these:



Once they have established air superiority and control send in a squadron of these:



My guess is that the Russians will quickly remember the way back out of Georgia. Condi wouldn't even have to raise her voice. And of course after the Warthogs show up she might casually mention that if there is not a complete withdrawal of the vehicles and troops that can still move within 24 hours that there will be a division of these put on the ground:



But I doubt that it would ever get that far.

A Contrast

Regarding the situation in Georgia:

John McCain has taken a strong stand from the start. His statement, "We are all Georgians," echoes John F. Kennedy's "Ich bin ein Berliner." Barack Obama, after a weak opening statement, has also condemned the Russian actions. But his own speech before the Prussian Victory Column in Berlin showed an incomplete appreciation of history.
- Michael Barone

I have been writing today about the great danger that faces our nation. Which would you rather have: someone who can't make up his mind about what he should do or someone who can make a quick, decisive statement and stick by it? Ask Vlad how far niceness and political correctness will get you.

As weird as it is to admit it, Hillary Clinton would have handled this situation better than Barack Obama did.

Another Good Quote On The Georgia Situation

In another very good article on the subject of the Russian invasion of Georgia Rich Tucker wrote:

Instead of answering force with force, Germany’s leader responded to Russia’s attack with meetings and words. “We very much want the six-point plan to be implemented very promptly so that Russian troops are no longer in Georgia, outside Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Chancellor Angela Merkel announced after meeting the Russian president.

All well and good. But that’s not what the Russians want, and they’re the ones driving tanks and holding guns.

The West is going to learn a difficult lesson in the years ahead: People with hard power don’t respect soft power.

...Soft power is a smokescreen that countries with no power deploy. Russia’s military has created a gentle breeze that’s blowing the smokescreen away. It’s not too late for America’s NATO allies to wake up and rearm. But they need to wake up and move quickly.

-Rich Tucker

I sure hope we wake up. The doves won't win the day. I'm afraid that it is the season of the hawk.

More On Putin

Bill O'Reilly wrote the following in a recent editorial:

Realizing that the Bush administration cannot handle another armed conflict right now, Putin decided to show the world that he could punish America's friend, Georgia, without a meaningful response. He has succeeded in doing that.

Down the road, either John McCain or Barack Obama will have to deal with Vlad the Assailer. This dour, brutal man senses weakness in both America and Europe, weakness that will drive him to become bolder. The only thing a guy like Vlad understands is the stick.

But how to wield it is the question. As with Iran, diplomacy is not likely to deter Putin because Europe needs Russia's natural gas and oil and is not likely to challenge Russia by supporting sanctions. So it will come down to the United States vs. Russia, mano a mano.

Putin is one tough customer. It will be interesting to see whether the United States will elect a leader who can effectively neutralize him. If that does not happen, old Vlad, like Dracula, will commit scourge on the countryside.

- Bill O'Reilly

Back in October 2007 I wrote a post that talked about what I see as a growing threat to American security. It highlighted apparent ties between China, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba, North Korea, and Iran. I thoroughly believe that the action that we see in Georgia right now is the beginning of the unfolding of the dreadful scenario that I laid out in that post.

Vladamir Putin has grown bolder and bolder since he took office. He has established Naziesque Russian youth organizations. He has now begun the process of imperial expansion to regain the countries of the former Soviet bloc.

Putin has taken a calculated risk with his invasion of Georgia. He believed that the US would not, indeed could not, retaliate or help because we could not risk an all-out war with Russia. I fear our response - or the weakness of that response will bear much bad fruit.

China likewise has a similar "Hitler Youth" type of program. It has also been doing much saber rattling in its region - especially towards Taiwan. I believe that the response of the US in the Georgian invasion will invite a similar invasion of Taiwan.

Here is the way I think that things will play themselves out. If the US does nothing then we will see additional 'Anschlusses.' If the US responds militarily to any of these attacks, I believe that we will see simultaneous attacks on territory by Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea.

I think that it would be possible for the US to make a limited stand against Russia right now. China is in the middle of the Olympics and doesn't want global favor turned away. That would make a response much safer, but I fear that we are quickly finding ourselves in a Catch-22.

Our window of opportunity is extremely small. The longer we wait to curb Putin, the less we will be able to do so. Great Britain had an opportunity to stop Hitler early on, but they missed their chance, and thousands upon thousands paid for that mistake with their lives.

The US had best develop some very strong allies quickly.

When I was a kid in the middle of the Cold War, our greatest fear was mutually-assured nuclear annihilation. In our current world, the stakes are just as high. We risk military defeat like we never have since the war of 1812. It's a dangerous world we live in. I pray to God that our next President has the grit to lead our country in such a perilous time.

Regarding Russia's Blitzkrieg In Georgia

I just read a very astute summation of the current Russian invasion of Georgia:

Want a straightforward indication of what the Russians intend? Putin's code-name for this operation is Chistoye Polye. Literally translated, that means "clean field." In military parlance, it means "scorched earth."

The empire of the czars hasn't produced such a frightening genius since Stalin.

You should read the rest of the article by Ralph Peters. I think that he hits the nail right on the head as opposed to Patrick Buchanan, who clearly did not have any background to the events leading up to Russia's invasion. Those who are surprised by this action by Russia will no doubt be surprised when China does something similar in Taiwan.

Georgia may have given Putin the excuse he needed, but the invasion was going to happen one way or the other. President Bush grossly misjudged Putin, and it would seem that Putin did not return the favor.